Kentucky kicks off its 2025 football season on Saturday against Toledo, entering the year with lower external expectations than usual. Outside of the COVID season, this marks the first time in recent memory that oddsmakers project the Wildcats to miss a bowl, setting their win total at just 4.5 games.
Their opener offers no soft landing. Toledo, a consistent Group of Five contender and the preseason pick to win the MAC, comes in with confidence after dismantling Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville last year. The betting line reflects both teams’ trajectories, shrinking from 12.5 points over the summer to just 7.5, underscoring Toledo’s credibility and the growing doubts surrounding Mark Stoops’ 13th season in Lexington.
Kentucky enters Saturday’s game with a strong recent history in season openers. Under Mark Stoops, the Wildcats hold a 9-3 record in their first games, covering the spread in five of the last six. Stoops believes experience has given him and his staff a reliable formula to get the team ready for Week 1.
“Coaches say this all the time, and I certainly feel like this: you try to not make the same mistake twice,” Stoops said during his press conference. “So, things that have happened in openers before, I really try to head off and make sure we’re prepared.” With kickoff approaching, it’s a fitting time to revisit Kentucky’s past dozen openers, the lessons learned, and how those experiences shaped the program’s starts.
2024: Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 0
Spread: -25.5 (Win) | Final Record: 4-8 (1-7 SEC)
The 2024 opener was a weather-marred affair, with a two-hour lightning delay pushing kickoff to 10:05 p.m. and ultimately forcing the game to be called in the third quarter. Still, Kentucky handled business as Brock Vandagriff tossed three touchdown passes and the defense blanked Southern Miss, offering a brief bright spot in what proved to be a disappointing season.
2023: Kentucky 44, Ball State 14
Spread: -25 (Win) | Final Record: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)
The 2023 season began with new faces making immediate impacts, as Ray Davis and Devin Leary combined for three touchdowns in their Kentucky debuts. Though the Wildcats trailed 7-3 after the first quarter, they quickly surged ahead with 20 unanswered points, fueled by two fumble recoveries that set the tone for a comfortable win.
2022: Kentucky 37, Miami (OH) 13
Spread:-16 (Win)
Final Record: 7–6 (3–5 SEC)
Kentucky went into halftime clinging to a 13–10 lead, but Barion Brown shifted momentum with a 100-yard kickoff return to open the second half. Moments later, Keidron Smith recovered a fumble to set up another quick score. From there, the Wildcats pulled away, sealing Mark Stoops’ 60th win tying Bear Bryant for the program record.
2021: Kentucky 45, UL-Monroe 10
Spread: -29.5 (Win)
Final Record: 10–3 (5–3 SEC)
ULM struck first with a touchdown midway through the opening quarter, but the Warhawks wouldn’t score again until the game’s final minutes. Kentucky dominated in Will Levis’ debut, as the transfer quarterback threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns against one interception, including two scoring connections with Wan’Dale Robinson.
2020: No. 8 Auburn 29, Kentucky 13 (Away)
Spread: +7.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 5–6 (4–6 SEC)
In a COVID-altered season with SEC-only scheduling, Kentucky opened on the road at No. 8 Auburn in front of a limited, student-only crowd at Jordan-Hare. The Wildcats trailed just 8–7 at halftime, but Bo Nix threw three second-half touchdowns to put the game out of reach. Costly turnovers and a failed fake punt sealed Kentucky’s fate.
2019: Kentucky 38, Toledo 24
Spread:-10.5 (Win)
Final Record: 8–5 (3–5 SEC)
Kentucky’s opener against Toledo was tight through halftime, with the Rockets leading after the first quarter and the score tied 14–14 at the break. The Wildcats seized momentum in the third, beginning with a fumble recovery that set up a field goal and a 32-yard Terry Wilson touchdown strike to Bryce Oliver. From there, Kentucky pulled away to a 14-point win, covering the spread against Jason Candle’s Rockets.
2018: Kentucky 35, Central Michigan 20
Spread:-17.5 (Loss)
Final Record:10–3 (5–3 SEC)
The opener was sloppy, as Kentucky turned the ball over four times in the first half and fell behind 17–7 in the second quarter. Gunnar Hoak replaced an injured Terry Wilson and connected with David Bouvier on a 24-yard touchdown to give the Wildcats a 21–20 halftime lead. Kentucky then shut out Central Michigan in the second half, dominating on the ground with a 299–118 rushing advantage.
2017: Kentucky 24, Southern Miss 17 (Away)
Spread:-9.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 7–6 (4–4 SEC)
Kentucky opened the season in unusual fashion at Southern Miss, and the game itself was just as strange. The offense sputtered, but the defense delivered, forcing two key fumbles in the second half. Denzil Ware returned one for a touchdown to stretch the lead to 24–10 in the third quarter, and Chris Westry’s forced fumble recovered by Courtney Love helped the Wildcats hang on for the win.
2016: Southern Miss 44, Kentucky 35
Spread: -3.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 7–6 (4–4 SEC)
In one of the more stunning openers of the Stoops era, Kentucky raced to a 35–10 lead in the second quarter only to collapse as Southern Miss scored 34 unanswered points. The Golden Eagles dominated after halftime, outgaining the Wildcats 261–22 in the second half to complete the upset in Lexington. Kentucky followed with a 45–7 loss at Florida the next week.
2015: Kentucky 40, Louisiana-Lafayette 33
Spread:-17 (Loss)
Final Record:5–7 (2–6 SEC)
The season opener at a newly renovated Commonwealth Stadium began bizarrely when a drone crashed into the venue just before kickoff. Kentucky built a three-touchdown lead but nearly squandered it, as Louisiana-Lafayette stormed back to tie the game late. Mikel Horton spared the Wildcats from embarrassment, scoring a 12-yard touchdown with 57 seconds remaining to secure the win.
2014: Kentucky 59, UT-Martin 14
Spread:-21.5 (Win)
Final Record: 5–7 (2–6 SEC)
Mark Stoops’ second season opener was a stress-free rout. Patrick Towles passed for 377 yards, while Braylon Heard, Mikel Horton, and Jojo Kemp combined for five rushing touchdowns. The Wildcats piled up 656 yards of total offense the fourth-most in program history at the time in a 59–14 blowout of the Skyhawks. The only sour note came late, when a Kentucky cheerleader was injured in a fall and had to be carted off the field.
2013: Western Kentucky 35, Kentucky 26 (Nashville)
Spread:-5.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 2–10 (0–8 SEC)
Mark Stoops’ debut as Kentucky’s head coach was a rough one, as Bobby Petrino’s Western Kentucky squad outgained the Wildcats 487–419 and controlled the ball for nearly 35 minutes in Nashville. The Hilltoppers spoiled the opener with a 35–26 win, a game that carried the same sting as Andrew Jackson’s famous “They supposed to be SEC!” line from the year before.
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